Amgen Prepares for Q3 Earnings Report: What to Anticipate

Amgen (AMGN) is set to announce its third-quarter earnings for 2024 on October 30, following the market close. The previous quarter saw the company exceed earnings expectations by 0.81%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts sales of $8.51 billion and earnings of $5.11 per share for this quarter.

Key Insights for Amgen's Performance

Amgen's revenue in this quarter is expected to benefit from solid volume growth in its major products including Prolia, Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto. Despite this growth, pricing pressures resulting from increased rebates aimed at broadening access are likely to have caused a decline in prices for most products.

The sales estimates for Prolia, Repatha, Evenity, and Blincyto are projected at $1.11 billion, $523 million, $406 million, and $274 million, respectively. Our estimates are slightly lower at $1.09 billion for Prolia, $502 million for Repatha, $381.9 million for Evenity, and $272.7 million for Blincyto.

Additionally, newer medications such as Tezspire and Tavneos are anticipated to boost sales, fueled by an increase in new patient volumes. Tezspire, in particular, is expected to have benefited from a new designated self-administered delivery format.

Sales estimates for Tezspire and Tavneos are $257.6 million and $91.4 million, respectively. Imdelltra (tarlatamab), recently approved for advanced small cell lung cancer, recorded $12 million in sales last quarter, with expectations of higher sales this quarter.

On the other hand, sales from Enbrel may have declined due to stagnant volume growth and decreasing prices. Similarly, sales for Otezla showed weakness in previous quarters, which could continue this quarter.

Consensus estimates for Otezla and Enbrel stand at $563 million and $923 million, while our estimates are higher at $588 million for Otezla and $920.1 million for Enbrel.

Revenue from Tepezza, Krystexxa, and Uplizna, following Amgen's acquisition of Horizon in October, is expected to enhance overall sales. However, reduced revenues from oncology biosimilars like Kanjinti and Mvasi, alongside declines from well-established products, may negatively impact revenues.

In the latter half of 2024, research and development costs are likely to have escalated, with operating margins anticipated to fall below previous levels. The third quarter is expected to show total adjusted costs increasing similarly to the initial two quarters of the year.

Investors will be keen on updates about Amgen's crucial pipeline candidate, MariTide, which targets obesity and is gaining significant attention.

Amgen's Earnings Surprise Track Record

Amgen has performed well historically, achieving earnings that exceeded estimates in the past four quarters, yielding an average earnings surprise of 3.47%.

This year, Amgen's stock has gained 11%, contrasting with an industry decline of 3.1%.

The Earnings Prediction Model for Amgen

Current analysis does not definitively suggest an earnings beat for Amgen this quarter. A combination of a favorable Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy), or #3 (Hold) is typically a positive indicator; however, this is not applicable for Amgen at this time.

Earnings ESP: Amgen has an Earnings ESP of -1.07%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is $5.11 per share, while the Most Accurate Estimate is $5.05 per share.

Zacks Rank: Amgen holds a Zacks Rank of #3.

Other Stocks to Consider

Below are some pharmaceutical companies that may outperform in terms of earnings this coming quarter:

Pfizer (PFE) shows an Earnings ESP of +2.68% and a Zacks Rank of #3. Pfizer has exceeded earnings expectations in each of the last four quarters, with a remarkable average earnings surprise of 69.82%. Pfizer's earnings report is scheduled for October 29.

Regeneron (REGN) has an Earnings ESP of +2.90% and a Zacks Rank of #3. The company's stock has increased by 9.6% this year, with an average quarterly earnings surprise of 6.01%. REGN is set to report on October 31.

Biogen (BIIB) presents an Earnings ESP of +1.14% and also has a Zacks Rank of #3. Although Biogen's stock has seen a decrease of 28.2% this year, it has successfully beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters. BIIB is also scheduled to report earnings on October 30.

Earnings, Amgen, Stocks